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The electoral commission was set to announce results at 11:00 pm DRC time tonight, but I’m writing this after that time and they are still not at the microphones.
As the announcement delay has continued, I’ve grown more concerned. While an excellent source (Stratfor) as well as the New York Times have said that Martin Fayulu is the winner, the other two front runners have had their people declare victory which is not a good thing. Most concerning was having the Congolese National Radio and Television (RTNC) declare Emmanuel Shadary as the winner. This is clear positioning by the candidates.
The concern is that the delay in announcing was a means to buy the government more time. More time for what? To alter results, to destroy records, to cover trails, who knows what. It’s not just current President Kabila who will be impacted with a loss by Shadary, his chosen candidate. If there is a change of control, all of Kabila’s appointments over the years are at risk with a new president. If those appointments acted improperly while in office, perhaps they deserve some punishment. But let’s pray that mass vigilantism doesn’t bring the country down.
The people have voted (well, except Beni and Butembo residents) and the world is waiting for the results of the count. This certainly brings to mind the famous idea of “It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.”
Unlike prior Congo elections, foreign vote observers were limited this time. Still, concerns over voting irregularities have been relatively limited to date.
The Catholic church caused a stir when they announced that they know who won and that person clearly won. It would be illegal to announce the winner in advance of the electoral commission announcing it, so the church seems to be giving a veiled warning that the vote should be accepted and not tampered with. A clear winner, if it isn’t President Kabila favoured Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, would be the best case scenario to limit concerns over voting fraud, especially given the voter disenfranchisement in three major cities including Beni and Butembo. Violence will likely be extensive if Shadary is elected, although that is an unexpected scenario. Martin Fayulu, a former oil executive or Felix Tshisekedi remain the front runners.
The church announcement seems contradictory to other claims in the media that barely a majority of votes have been counted so far. Voting patterns vary widely across the country, so it is vital to know which areas have been counted and which have not. The electoral commission last said that the results will be announced on Sunday January 6, 2019 but multiple reports are indicating that this will further delayed.
80 U.S. troops have been deployed to nearby, but not adjacent, Gabon. That is seen as a precautionary move to protect the Kinshasa embassy if violence did erupt in the Congo capital. Gabon, which is comparatively wealthy due to their extensive albeit declining off shore oil reserves, has good relations with the U.S.
As expected, violence in Beni and Butembo has been extensive in the wake of cancelling the national election in these two cities, while still proceeding elsewhere. This would be like calling off a presidential election only in Chicago because someone said that too many shootings are happening in that city.
Locals have blamed the doctors and Ebola facilities responsible for the cancelled elections. The main Ebola surveillance centre has thus been torched.
Ebola centre on fire
But local ignorance of Ebola is also on display. Ebola treatment centres have been ransacked, many Ebola patients have fled into the population (many returned quickly, likely after meeting some knowledgeable people) but children have been seen with gear from the centres. It isn’t confirmed if these lab coats shown below are contaminated, but today’s events are not going to be positive towards containing the Ebola outbreak.
In a bizarre twist, the national electoral commission has confirmed that the delayed national election will be held this Sunday, but not in Beni or Butembo or the western city of Yumbi. For these three cities, elections are being scheduled for March 2019 and voters are disenfranchised for the presidential vote.
The commission is citing Ebola fears to justify this course of action. With Beni and Butembo areas generally opposed to current President Kabila and his chosen successor Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, locals are not happy and are not buying the Ebola rationale. Demonstrations with a high probability of violence are anticipated if this decision is not quickly revisited.
The national election, scheduled for Sunday December 23, have been postponed by at least a week to December 30. There is uncertainty if even that date can be met.
Last week, a fire destroyed 80% of the recently purchased voting machines to be used in Kinshasa and all of the available paper ballots. The election commission has said that it is not technically possible to run the election on December 23. That is likely true given the fire, but the cause or people behind that fire remains unknown. Given that current President Kabila’s preferred candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, is only polling at 16%, suspicions remain.
The leading two candidates in recent polls, Felix Tshisekedi (36%) and Vital Kamerhe (17%) have indicated that they will work together, which caused joyous riots in the streets of Kinshasa when announced last month. Kamerhe will serve as Prime Minister if Tshisekedi is elected as President. Felix is the son of the legendary Etienne Tshisekedi who was the most prominent opponent to current President Joseph Kabila over the years. Felix has promised to eliminate the corruption, will probably be a nightmare for Kabila but has been described as inexperienced and over his head given the vast problems facing Congo.
We have known Kahambu Saasita since our first visit to Beni in 2006. She had a strong passion for supporting the Healing Streams seminars concerning rape counselling. Since then, we have maintained contact, supported her efforts with micro-financing as well as her recent efforts in support of sanitation given the Ebola outbreak. She at times has been a wonder woman.
Saasitsa is now completing her studies at the Institut Superieur de Developpement Rural (Institute of Rural Development). Her training is focused on the management of rural development which covers a lot of areas, including ecology, financing, project analysis, sustainable agriculture issues, sanitation and other topics. Recently she has specifically worked on the subject of the challenge of funding of woman’s entrepreneurship as well as the development of co-operative savings programs.
Saasita – 2018
The DRC has a national unemployment rate of 46%, the highest in the world, by far. The Belgians didn’t support national education. Wars and civil strife have taken their toll. Ultimately, their best hope for generating internal wealth is through the development of small businesses that eventually grow to be bigger business. That will require political stability, but also education. We are pleased to be able to support people gain their education, such as Saasita, who have worked unselfishly at times in support of people in eastern Congo.
In January 2016, through the efforts of James Kataliko, we started a water filter reselling business in the main Butembo market. Unfortunately, the physical security situation in the area badly deteriorated shortly thereafter and the business struggled. James did a masterful job of managing the difficult situation by liquidating the inventory and pivoting to a new venture without loss of the original capital.
Since July 2018, the venture has been reselling consumer household products. Sales have been increasing each month to reach over $2,500 in the month of October. There has been a net profit each month after paying wages to two people.
The business has been able to grow it’s base capital each month from the profits, now operating on Avenue Ngulo in the main Marché Central. Since this business was essentially funded with foreign capital, I am sensitive to the issue of unfairly disrupting the local marketplace. We have always had the policy that a portion of profits needs to be re-invested as required but that a portion be distributed for charitable purposes. To fulfill the goal of being charitable, James has identified a local orphan for the business to support. 10% of profits are going to Dieula who is now in kindergarten. This amount currently covers her school fees which Dieula’s caretakers are receiving monthly. Her name is derived from Dieu Est là which translates to God is there. James is expecting that we should be able to identify and support another orphan very soon.
Dieula
After years of speculation, Dr. Denis Mukwege has been confirmed as joint winner of the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize, sharing the 2018 award with Iraqi rights activist Nadia Murad, a Yazidi woman who was kidnapped and taken as a sex slave by ISIS. When he was awarded the Sakhorov prize in late 2014, we noted at that time the calls to award him the Nobel peace prize.
He is known as “the man who mends woman”. His clinic in Bukavu has treated 30,000 rape victims. (Some reports say 50,000.) Dr. Mukwege was very supportive of the Healing Streams ministry which focused on sexual victims of the Congo wars and was our original reason to be engaged in eastern Congo. It was a high honour to have enjoyed a private dinner with him in Kitchener, Ontario. He certainly is a quality gentleman and well deserving of the Nobel award.
Multiple international news agency are verifying the deadly attack in Beni. Four Congolese soldiers were killed but mainly innocent civilians died. Reports of the death toll are conflicting (at least 12 civilians) but all point to the ADF as being responsible. A day of mourning has been declared in Beni.
https://www.digitalcongo.net/article/5ba8a31a6150db00046f4ea6/
Locals have provided the gruesome photos.
The city of Beni has suffered a horrendous attack by the Islamic ADF on September 22, 2018 with potentially 20 killed. From Kijiji Cha Amani:
The night of Saturday to Sunday, September 23, 2018, the ADF have incursion in the city of Beni until Kasindi parking lot in Mupanda / TCB, bicentennial big hall. 16 dead including 12 civilians. Beni mourning. The alleged ADF-Nalu attackers have attacked the city since last night at 18:30 from the district KASINGA, PAIDA, KASANGA-PAIDA, KASABINYOLE, to the TCB MUPANDA for those who know the city of Beni.
The provisional balance sheet shows:
– 20 civilians killed
– 5 soldiers too,
– 25 civilian and military wounded.
– 4 houses fires
– Several damaged vehicles being at TCB Mupanda,
– Several rescued passers-by riddled with bullets by fugitives on all sides.
– Several other valuable goods looted by strangers during clashes,
– Several missing persons and others carried away by attackers …
THE SEARCH AND COLLECTION OF OTHER BODIES CONTINUE FOR THE MOMENT BY PEOPLE OF GOOD WILL.
We are monitoring the situation very closely and further developments will be communicated by our local community ambassadors in Beni.
In the morning, citizens of Beni were protesting the violence.
Bens in Congo 